MAP Insights

I’ve said this before: We are seeing the early stages of World War III unfolding before our eyes. This year’s presidential elections in Taiwan and the USA will greatly influence the fluid situation, apart from China’s gray zone tactics directed against them and us. Biting economic sanctions may lead affected countries to launch a war for survival. Beleaguered leaders of contending powers could also use the war card to deflect attention from domestic troubles. A miscalculation of an opponent’s national power could produce tragic results.

It’s those dynamic forces at play that will determine the path to war. As each day passes, the judgement scale continues to tilt steadily toward armed conflict. I believe that this assessment is shared by many citizens, including those in government: President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., National Security Adviser Eduardo Año, Foreign Affair Secretary Enrique Manalo, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, and Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Carlito Galvez. I’ve noted their unity of outlook and purpose in articulating our diplomatic and security policy.

The probability of war reaching our doorsteps, with or without our allies, keeps rising. When we were alone from 1991-2019 to deal with China’s arrogant coercions, it ignored our diplomatic protests and continued to bully and threaten us. After the USA, the UK, Japan, Australia, and some NATO countries finally came to life, China still remains unmoved. Freedom of Navigation Operations or FONOPS, joint patrols and exercises haven’t deterred China. Its behavior indicates that it really wants to be the new tiger on the hill, and ready to rumble.

An armed clash could happen this year or next. As such, preparedness cannot be over-emphasized should the worst case happen. War between the great powers will, beyond a reasonable doubt, adversely impact our society and the economy. Evidently, our communities must have the mindset to deal with what may come, while our government and our allies search for better ways to deter China from going kinetic — that can only bring the whole world down with it.

Our planning must include what we, as a major non-NATO ally, should also do in case deterrence fails. A fast and furious recounting of offered solutions is in order and, in some cases, in exchange for Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA concessions.

• Rapidly equip all under-armed and unarmed naval ships with similar or the same weapons, missile systems, and combat information centers as the forthcoming corvettes.
• Rapidly acquire and/or manufacture smart kamikaze air-sea-land-launched drones in sufficient quantities that will ensure sustained operations against interloping or invading forces.
• Request for hot transfers from the USA, Japan, and South Korea of F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s being replaced by F-35s; A-10s; HIMARS; and missile frigates from NATO about to be replaced, under WW2-like lend-lease terms.
• Beef up the inventories of FA-50s, Brahmos standoff missiles, ATMOS artillery batteries, SPYDER anti-aircraft missile systems; Shaldag V fast attack craft; Sabra light tanks; C4ISTAR systems, etc.
• Request for unfettered access to fuel, food, medical, communications, weapons and munitions stockpiles; and infrastructure development funding to harden logistics centers and networks, and build community air raid bunkers.
• Rapidly reinvent the Reserve Force for combat to reinforce the regular forces and for Operations Other Than War, particularly civil defense.

War risk mitigation and crisis management readiness may be dichotomous imperatives, but we must go beyond our best to save our children and their future because only the dead will see the end of war.